李建新 - 教授 博士生导师 - 社会学人类学中国网.pdf

Research Abstract Maintain a Low Fertility Level and Realize Sustainable Development Li Jianxin China’s population today is characterized by a “low birth rate, low death rate and low natural increase rate”. While this has created a favorable environment for economic growth, new problems have also cropped up: continued population growth due to a large base number; population aging; incompetence of the population; and unbalanced development between population, resources and the environment. economic structure and all aspects of social life. Another factor is the fertility behaviors of the family. A low fertility rate is impossible to achieve without public support. In rural areas, this means each family should be permitted to have no less than two children. In urban areas, the fertility level has in fact lowered to below the replacement level, and the average number of children each family may bear will not exceed 1.7 even without the limits imposed by the fertility policy. Nationwide, the average number of children for each household should fall within the range of 1.8-2.2. A low fertility level is not the final objective, but a means to realize sustainable development. Too large a population and too rap id population growth pose obstacles to sustainable development. China’s population size is now approaching 1.3 billion and continues to grow. Meanwhile, the quality of the population, which is positively correlated to sustainable development, should be improved. As a matter of fact, in the above-mentioned official document, the Chinese government not only proposed quantifiable indicators for controlling the population size (by 2010 the total population to be controlled under 1.4 billion and the average annual birth rate not exceeding 15 per thousand), but also set forth goals for improving the quality of the population, including normalizing the sex ratio at birth, ensuring access of couples of childbearing age to basic reproductive health services, and informed choice of contraceptive methods. Low Fertility Level In March 2000, the Chinese government stated in an official document that it remains an arduous task in the years to come to maintain a low fertility level. However, exactly how low is low is a matter of debate. Most agree it is a dynamic, relative and evolving concept that varies from time to time and from country to country. The United Nations first adopted four as a benchmark fertility rate in 1965. But in 1990, it was changed to 2.5 and in 1992, further to 2.1, the replacement level. Most scholars believe that a low fertility level should be somewhere around the replacement level of a population. For China, the fertility rate is subject to three factors. First, the level of socioeconomic development, which varies significantly between the east and the west, between urban and rural areas and between areas inhabited by the Hans and ethnic groups. Setting a unified rate is neither realistic nor necessary for the whole country. However, for each region, the fertility level should not be higher than the replacement level. That is to say, the average number of children for each family should not be more than two, or the lifetime fertility rate of women should not be higher than 2.1-2.3. Should the fertility rate be as low as possible then? Not necessarily. There should be a limit for fertility decline, which is determined by two factors. One is that we must take into consideration the issue of population structure (including acceleration of aging and the sex ratio at birth). Generally speaking, a rapid decline in the fertility rate will lead to a significant change in the population structure and rapid development of aging, while rapid changes in the population structure will in turn negatively impact population itself, social and China Population Today S h o r t- and Long -T e r m G o a l s The long-term goal is to keep the total fertility rate of China’s population at the replacement level, eventually realizing two children for each family for urban and rural areas. A sampling survey conducted by the State Family Planning Commission in 1997 revealed that 1.9% of urban women preferred to be childless lifetime and 42.9% would like to have one child, with the average number of births desired being 1.6. The following table shows the evolution of China’s population during 1990-2090, assuming that the fertility level in urban areas will 6 October 2001 Research Abstract social security system is fairly developed and the cost of child-rearing is rather high, CBR NIR Year Urban Rural CFR Total pop. % of pop. aged with the lifetime fertility rate (‰） (‰） 65 & over CFR (%) (%) (Billion) of women averaging below 1990 1.55 2.54 1.130 5.6 22.26 15.40 2.0 even if women of 2000 1.70 2.10 1.288 7.0 16.47 9.64 childbearing age are allowed 2010 1.70 2.10 1.382 8.4 13.68 6.37 to give a second birth. It is 2020 1.70 2.00 1.468 11.7 13.36 5.17 proposed, therefore, that the 2030 1.70 2.00 1.510 15.9 10.41 1.00 present fertility policy be 2040 1.70 2.00 1.507 21.5 10.59 -0.95 shifted to a “two-children 2050 1.70 2.00 1.475 23.0 9.73 -3.16 policy”. 2060 1.70 2.00 1.408 26.2 9.16 -4.76 The third is areas where 2070 1.70 2.00 1.335 27.6 9.34 -5.86 the family planning program 2080 1.70 2.00 1.253 27.8 8.82 -6.56 has been well carried out and 2090 1.70 2.00 1.171 29.2 8.86 -6.57 the “one-and-half-children Source: Author’s Ph. D. dissertation. policy” implemented. The “one-and-half-children remain at 1.7 and that for rural areas 2.0. policy” is a policy that permits the following types of The table shows China’s population will peak at couples to have a second birth: Both husband and wife 1.512 during 2030-34, and then begin to decline. By the are only children themselves, either husband or wife is end of 2010, the total population will be controlled below only child, or husband/wife whose first child is a 1.4 billion and the crude birth rate will be lowered to 15 daughter. It is proposed that all couples in these areas be per thousand, which matches the targets set by the permitted to have two children. government. The fourth is areas where the family planning program has not been well carried out and the “one-child Continuing the Existing Policy policy” has been promoted but not enforced so that couples generally have two children. The policy for this To realize the targets set in China’s population and region, therefore, should continue to be the present family planning programs, the current fertility policy “two-children policy”, but more attention should be paid must be continued. The current fertility policy includes to prevention of early marriage, early childbearing and promoting deferred marriage and deferred childbearing, high-parity births. encouraging one couple to have one child, allowing a The fifth is rural areas where the family planning second birth for couples who meet the requirements program has not been strictly and effectively carried out specified in the family planning regulations, and and the “one-and-half-children policy” has been encouraging members of ethnic minority groups to promoted but in reality, couples universally have more practice family planning. than two children. It is proposed that the impractical To achieve sustainable development within the strict fertility policy be adjusted and that two children be present policy framework, this author suggests that for permitted for each family while resolutely prohibiting different regions, different policies may be considered. high-parity births. For this purpose, he divides the country into six regions Finally, the sixth is poverty-stricken areas and areas based on their fertility levels. inhabited by ethnic groups. These areas are The first is areas where the family planning characterized by socioeconomic underdevelopment, poor program has been effectively implemented and the medical and health services and a high maternal and “one-child policy” strictly practiced. For this region, infant mortality rate. In these areas, each couple has been only children, born in late 1970s and early 1980s and allowed to have two or more children. When now reaching the legal age of marriage, should be implementing the family planning program here, the permitted to have two children. government should make great efforts to lower the The second is areas where the family planning maternal and infant mortality rate and improve maternal program has been well implemented and the “one-child and child health care and the status of women. policy” practiced, with a second birth for husbands and (The author is an associate professor with the Institute wives who are only children themselves. These areas of Sociology of Beijing University.) ■ include cities and more developed rural areas where the Change of some population indicators during 1990-2090 October 2001 7 China Population Today